The first and most obvious problem with biofuels is that they’re not really solving the pollution problem. At best, it’s a net gain of zero, though admittedly that’s a hell of a lot better than we get out of fossil fuels. Burning biofuels still releases CO2 out of green plants and dumps it into the atmosphere. The fact that it all came out of the atmosphere (as opposed to out of the ground) just means that we break even. That’s not a solution. We need to actively reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2, not just recycle it. The best way to do that (and to make progress regarding many other problems) is to encourage permanent plant growth, not just cut it down every year so we can plant it anew the next year.
But the real problems arise when you get a further step removed from biofuel production itself. The cultivated (and even cultivatable) land is getting divided between fuel production and food production, and which direction the plants go will depend on who’s paying more for it. Which means that merchants will be paying more for both fuel and food, because they have to outcompete the other, which then means that both food and fuel prices for the end consumer will skyrocket.
The solution then is to increase production, which will lower prices. It will also be profitable to bring more land into production, simply because it’s so lucrative. Which then means that more wild land will be put to the plow. Most likely it will have lain fallow in the US, since there’s so little natural growth left, but in Brazil they’re increasing deforestation rates specifically for the purposes of increasing fuel production. That means more CO2 being released, regardless of what type of vegetation is being destroyed, and more annual turnover, meaning less standing biomass, and more CO2 sitting in the atmosphere.
But don’t take my word for it. As usual, I present you with a plethora of links backing up my wild ideas.
27 January 2008
25 January 2008
Peaked Oil, OPEC, and other shenanigans
So everybody’s heard of Peak Oil at this point, even if some people are still in denial. But that denial is getting progressively tougher to maintain. Even the Wall Street Journal (review here), which has historically denied it completely, has finally fessed up to “plateauing oil”, and a “limit looming on production” – they can’t keep up the farce that oil production will continue to increase indefinitely anymore.
If people were content with leveling off (which they’d refer to as “stagnation”), it wouldn’t be that big a deal. Gas prices are high, but they wouldn’t continue to get higher. But instead, the overriding theme is “bigger-better-faster-more”, which means that the demand for oil will continue to increase. When demand is high and supply low, prices go up. Simple economics, and it doesn’t require more than half a brain to see it.
So not only does the price of gas continue to increase, but the price of everything else that relies on oil to move around the country increases. These days, buying local requires you to go to certain stores, or at least certain sections of a store, and usually to pay more. But as the cost of moving stuff increases, local goods will become cheaper and more prevalent.
But that’s another post. I’m just dealing with the oil here. A couple weeks ago, Bush implored Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. They told him to stuff it, and to get the US economy and foreign policy under control, because those are the factors that are really driving up oil prices. (The economy obviously isn’t helping, and the foreign policy thing may well be true, but I don’t know enough about politics to speak on that.) Now the US Secretary of Energy is making the same plea, likely with the same result.
But seriously, what motivation does OPEC have to increase production just to reduce cost to the rest of the world? The CIA’s World Factbook says (under Economy, halfway down the page), “High oil prices have boosted growth, government revenues, and Saudi ownership of foreign assets, while enabling Riyadh to pay down domestic debt.” It’s a win-win.
But the truth is that Saudi Arabia can’t increase production. We’re entering the Tough Oil Era. We’ve already pumped all of the “easy oil” out of the ground, and what’s left is getting progressively more difficult to get to, whether because it’s in hazardous environments, logistically inaccessible, or just scattered in small, economically inviable pockets.
It’s not OPEC’s fault that they’re not increasing production. It really is getting tougher, just to maintain production, let alone increase it. But it’s safer to let the rest of the world think they’re being snobbish than to admit that they can’t increase production. Once people realize that dipomacy is ineffective, then they start looking at military strategies. So all the Saudis are actually doing is buying time. But really, that’s all any of us are doing, trying to put off the crash a bit longer.
If people were content with leveling off (which they’d refer to as “stagnation”), it wouldn’t be that big a deal. Gas prices are high, but they wouldn’t continue to get higher. But instead, the overriding theme is “bigger-better-faster-more”, which means that the demand for oil will continue to increase. When demand is high and supply low, prices go up. Simple economics, and it doesn’t require more than half a brain to see it.
So not only does the price of gas continue to increase, but the price of everything else that relies on oil to move around the country increases. These days, buying local requires you to go to certain stores, or at least certain sections of a store, and usually to pay more. But as the cost of moving stuff increases, local goods will become cheaper and more prevalent.
But that’s another post. I’m just dealing with the oil here. A couple weeks ago, Bush implored Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. They told him to stuff it, and to get the US economy and foreign policy under control, because those are the factors that are really driving up oil prices. (The economy obviously isn’t helping, and the foreign policy thing may well be true, but I don’t know enough about politics to speak on that.) Now the US Secretary of Energy is making the same plea, likely with the same result.
But seriously, what motivation does OPEC have to increase production just to reduce cost to the rest of the world? The CIA’s World Factbook says (under Economy, halfway down the page), “High oil prices have boosted growth, government revenues, and Saudi ownership of foreign assets, while enabling Riyadh to pay down domestic debt.” It’s a win-win.
But the truth is that Saudi Arabia can’t increase production. We’re entering the Tough Oil Era. We’ve already pumped all of the “easy oil” out of the ground, and what’s left is getting progressively more difficult to get to, whether because it’s in hazardous environments, logistically inaccessible, or just scattered in small, economically inviable pockets.
It’s not OPEC’s fault that they’re not increasing production. It really is getting tougher, just to maintain production, let alone increase it. But it’s safer to let the rest of the world think they’re being snobbish than to admit that they can’t increase production. Once people realize that dipomacy is ineffective, then they start looking at military strategies. So all the Saudis are actually doing is buying time. But really, that’s all any of us are doing, trying to put off the crash a bit longer.
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